XR時代的到來,可能比預期還要早。
3月13日,據外媒報道,雖然蘋果公司的設計團隊覺得更為成熟的AR頭顯還需要推遲幾年,但CEO蒂姆·庫克與運營總監杰夫·威廉姆斯堅持在今年發布。
其實以iPhone、AirPods、Watch切入賽道的時間點分析,蘋果公司從來沒想過做行業首發的創新者,而是市場紅利收割者。因此,從庫克強硬且著急的態度可以看出,XR金礦已經顯現。
“10年內會有超10億人戴上AR眼鏡。” Nreal創始人兼CEO徐馳認為,AR/VR 是一個復雜的交叉學科,跟空間感知、云計算渲染、顯示等技術的突破,以及規模量產能力落地密切相關。
產業鏈一片沸騰。不過據潮電智庫了解,目前XR生產制造行業普遍存在自動化產線布局組建方面的困擾,急需裝備制造商助力。
康泰達智能科技研發副總經理趙永崗說,“現在XR行業呈現百花齊放的特點,并沒有標準化的產品形態,這對于裝備制造業來說是新機遇也是新挑戰。”
據悉,作為XR智能設備代表廠商,康泰達已經與歌爾、舜宇、耐德佳等數家頭部企業建立長期深度合作關系,用于XR生產的AA設備市占率超過30%。
01XR量產難題
手機是過去15年最成功的智能終端,但人類體驗仍受限于二維空間和屏幕大小,被視為打開元宇宙大門鑰匙的XR代表著未來,近兩年吸引各路企業加入。
在前不久的2023MWC展會上,XR眼鏡力壓智能手機和智能穿戴,成為最大的熱點。小米、華為、OPPO、影目科技、創維、雷鳥創新、聯想、努比亞、歌爾、三星、高通、HTC、tooz等廠商紛紛展示了自己在XR領域的技術成果。
明爭背后,是供應鏈與生產體系的暗戰。有品牌廠商直言,“先不論XR產品方案的優劣,僅落地量產環節就會難倒一批產業玩家。”
據潮電智庫了解,除了歌爾、龍旗、華勤、聞泰等傳統ODM陣營,歐菲光、舜宇、藍思等供應鏈大廠也從去年開始實施XR智能眼鏡終端的整機制造計劃,成為XR制造新勢力。
XR大致會經歷硬件量產、好工具出現、快速形成內容、生態繁榮這四個階段。行業專家分析認為,雖然內容交互是核心,但硬件量產才是基石與保證,包括單/雙目鏡、尺寸、精度、光學和校正、一體/分體等,只有這些技術要點都做到極致,才有可能打造出爆款硬件。
已于國內上市的O公司將XR整機制造定位為未來戰略性業務之一,其事業部負責人亮哥表示,大家基本處于同一起跑線,比拼的是光機、立體顯示和傳感器技術,以及最核心的上下游資源、品控和自動化生產等能力。
有研究機構最新報告顯示,雖然2022年全球XR出貨量低于預期,但由于蘋果MR頭顯、meta Quest 3等關鍵產品的帶動,2023年XR出貨量將達到2400萬臺,同比增長67%,銷售額達到11.5億美元。至2030年,將有10億臺XR眼鏡和傳感設備投入使用。
作為全球最大的手機制造國,中國在過去孕育的龐大供應鏈、人才生態、制造經驗讓XR硬件的規模化量產成為可能。有行業觀點樂觀的認為,與手機行業不同,中國XR會跑在世界的最前面。
02市場技術雙先發
為了快速掘金XR賽道,去年年中,深圳某大型ODM工廠斥巨資上線整套自動化生產系統,但碰到一大棘手難題:原有AA設備并不適配,市面上可選方案和供應商非常少。
歷經一番周折,該工廠最后采購了康泰達的全自動AA產品,難題迎刃而解。
根據潮電智庫了解,包括歌爾、舜宇和耐德佳等知名企業在內,目前國內至少有四家一線XR光機大廠均康泰達建立了長期深度合作關系。
據專業人士介紹,XR AA、光學測試設備核心技術在于,人眼相機光學取像系統和高效的圖像底層算法,以及高精度、穩定可靠的運動機構集成設計。
作為中國最早布局XR領域的自動化設備企業之一,康泰達在元宇宙概念尚未盛行時,便已決定調整產品結構和戰略路線,進入消費電子新藍海,并成功形成了XR技術設備與市場的雙先發優勢。
趙永崗表示,依托10年以上精密光學光電行業設備開發設計制造經驗,康泰達自主研發的多款高解析度人眼相機系統,已滿足AR/VR/MR以及各種主流光學方案的終端產品AA及測試需求,結合自研底層算法套裝軟件,實現AA設備和光機、整機光學測試設備的測項靈活配置。
分享在行業“首吃螃蟹”的滋味,趙永崗說,“因為是全新的產業形態,沒有太多的經驗和模式可以借鑒,剛開始時是摸黑前行,也踩過坑,但蹚過之后才能迎接光明。”
對于以自動化AA為切入點的原因,趙永崗解釋稱,一是AA存在較高的技術門檻,可以此打造護城河;二是AA設備中標準化的應用模塊較多,便于以后其它設備方案的兼容導入。
根據康泰達的發展規劃,后續將形成XR光機、整機全自動化生產線,其中包括部件組裝、半成品、成品測試設備等產品全矩陣,持續提升與擴大綜合競爭力優勢。
潮電智庫認為,作為下一代移動平臺,XR賽道足夠寬廣,以康泰達為代表的智能設備企業將會盡享產業紅利。
Deep cooperation with leading manufacturers such as Goer, Sunny, and Nedglass, and Kangtaida's first breakthrough XR Intelligent Manufacturing
The arrival of the XR era may be even earlier than expected.
On March 13th, according to foreign media reports, although Apple's design team felt that a more mature AR headphone would need to be delayed for a few years, CEO Tim Cook and Operations Director Jeff Williams insisted on releasing it this year.
In fact, based on the time point analysis of iPhone, AirPods, and Watch entering the market, Apple has never considered becoming an industry first mover innovator, but rather a market dividend harvester. Therefore, from Cook's tough and anxious attitude, it can be seen that XR Gold Mine has already emerged.
Over 1 billion people will wear AR glasses within 10 years, "said Xu Chi, founder and CEO of Nreal. AR/VR is a complex interdisciplinary field closely related to breakthroughs in technologies such as spatial perception, cloud computing rendering, display, and the implementation of large-scale production capabilities.
The industrial chain is boiling. However, according to the Chaodian Think Tank, there are currently widespread difficulties in the layout and establishment of automated production lines in the XR production and manufacturing industry, and equipment manufacturers are urgently needed to assist.
Zhao Yonggang, Deputy General Manager of R&D for Kangtaida Intelligent Technology, said, "The XR industry is now characterized by a hundred flowers blooming, and there is no standardized product form. This is a new opportunity and challenge for the equipment manufacturing industry.
It is reported that as a representative manufacturer of XR intelligent devices, Kangtai Da has established long-term and deep cooperative relationships with several leading enterprises such as Goer, Sunny, and Nedglass, with a market share of over 30% of AA equipment used for XR production.
XR mass production challenges
Mobile phones have been the most successful smart terminals in the past 15 years, but the human experience is still limited by two-dimensional space and screen size. XR, seen as the key to opening the door to the metaverse, represents the future and has attracted various enterprises to join in the past two years.
At the recent 2023MWC exhibition, XR glasses became the biggest hotspot, surpassing smartphones and smart wearables. Manufacturers such as Xiaomi, Huawei, OPPO, Yingmu Technology, Skyworth, Thunderbird Innovation, Lenovo, Nubia, Goethe, Samsung, Qualcomm, HTC, Tooz, and others have showcased their technological achievements in the XR field.
Behind the open debate is a hidden battle between the supply chain and production system. Some brand manufacturers have bluntly stated, "Regardless of the quality of XR product solutions, just implementing mass production will be difficult for a group of industry players.
According to the Chaodian Think Tank, in addition to traditional ODM camps such as Geer, Longqi, Huaqin, and Wentai, major supply chain manufacturers such as Oufeiguang, Shunyu, and Lansi have also implemented the complete machine manufacturing plan for XR intelligent glasses terminals since last year, becoming a new force in XR manufacturing.
XR will roughly go through four stages: hardware mass production, the emergence of good tools, rapid content formation, and ecological prosperity. Industry experts analyze and believe that although content interaction is the core, hardware mass production is the cornerstone and guarantee, including single/double eyepieces, size, accuracy, optics and correction, integrated/split, etc. only by achieving the ultimate in these technical points can we create explosive hardware.
Company O, which has been listed in China, has positioned the manufacturing of XR complete machines as one of its future strategic businesses. The head of its business unit, Liang Ge, stated that everyone is basically on the same track, competing for optical machinery, three-dimensional display and sensor technology, as well as the core upstream and downstream resources, quality control, and automated production capabilities.
The latest report from a research institution shows that although the global XR shipment volume in 2022 was lower than expected, driven by key products such as Apple's MR headsets and meta Quest 3, the XR shipment volume in 2023 will reach 24 million units, a year-on-year increase of 67%, and sales will reach $1.15 billion. By 2030, 1 billion XR glasses and sensing devices will be put into use.
As the world's largest mobile phone manufacturer, China's vast supply chain, talent ecosystem, and manufacturing experience nurtured in the past have made large-scale production of XR hardware possible. There is an optimistic industry view that, unlike the mobile phone industry, China's XR will be at the forefront of the world.
The First mover of Market & Technology
In order to quickly dig into the XR track, a large ODM factory in Shenzhen invested heavily in launching a complete automated production system in the middle of last year, but encountered a major challenge: the original AA equipment was not suitable, and there were very few options and suppliers available on the market.
After some twists and turns, the factory finally purchased Kangtai Da's fully automatic AA products, and the problem was easily solved.
According to the Chao Dian, including well-known enterprises such as Goethe, Shunyu, and NedJia, at least four top tier XR optical and mechanical manufacturers in China have established long-term and deep cooperative relationships with Kangtai Da.
According to professionals, the core technology of XR AA and optical testing equipment lies in the optical imaging system of the human eye camera, efficient image underlying algorithms, and high-precision, stable and reliable integrated design of motion mechanisms.
As one of the earliest automation equipment companies in China to layout the XR field, Contida decided to adjust its product structure and strategic route before the concept of the metaverse was prevalent, entering the new blue ocean of consumer electronics, and successfully forming a dual first mover advantage in XR technology equipment and the market.
Zhao Yonggang stated that relying on more than 10 years of experience in the development, design, and manufacturing of precision optical and optoelectronic industry equipment, Kangtai Da has independently developed multiple high-resolution human eye camera systems, which have met the AA and testing requirements of terminal products for AR/VR/MR and various mainstream optical solutions. Combined with self-developed underlying algorithm suite software, it has achieved flexible configuration of test items for AA equipment, optical machinery, and overall optical testing equipment.
Sharing the taste of being the first to eat crabs in the industry, Zhao Yonggang said, "Because it is a brand new industrial form, there is not much experience and models to learn from. At the beginning, it was to move forward in the dark, and also to step into the pit, but only after wading through can we welcome the bright future.
For the reason why automation AA is the starting point, Zhao Yonggang explained that firstly, AA has a high technical threshold, which can be used to create a moat; Secondly, there are many standardized application modules in AA devices, which facilitates the compatibility and import of other device solutions in the future.
According to the development plan of Kangtai Da, a fully automated production line for XR optical machinery and complete machines will be formed in the future, including a full matrix of products such as component assembly, semi-finished products, and finished product testing equipment, to continuously improve and expand comprehensive competitive advantages.
Chaodian believes that as the next generation mobile platform, the XR track is wide enough, and intelligent device companies represented by Kangtai Da will fully enjoy the industry dividend.